The S-Curve Is Here: EVs Are Changing Things for the Better

This growth curve is incredible.

Canada just crossed a milestone that would have seemed absurd a decade ago: one million electric vehicles on the road.¹ In 2015, there were 18,000. By 2020, 200,000. And now, a million.² That’s not gradual change. That’s an S-curve in motion.

There are definite parallels with other S-curve technology adoptions we’ve seen throughout history. Smartphones. The internet. LED lighting. Once a technology reaches a certain threshold of adoption, it doesn’t slow down. It accelerates. And like those technological leaps, EVs are changing things for the better – for businesses and for the environment.

Europe Just Proved the Tipping Point Is Real

The eventual dominance of EVs is inevitable. If you needed proof, Europe just delivered it.

In December 2025, EV sales surpassed gas vehicle sales in Europe for the first time.³ Over 300,000 EVs were registered across the EU, UK, and EFTA countries – a 50% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, gas car registrations fell nearly 18%.³ That’s not a blip. That’s a structural shift.

Norway, the perennial leader, hit a staggering 96% battery-electric share of all new vehicle registrations in 2025.³ Across the EU, EVs now account for 17.4% of total car sales – roughly double the rate in the United States.³ And this came on the heels of EVs overtaking diesel in 2023, and plug-in hybrids doing the same a year later.⁴

The pattern is clear. One powertrain after another is falling to electrification. Gas is simply next in line.

Canada Is on the Same Trajectory

Back home, the numbers tell the same story – just a few years behind. Canada’s one million EVs represent about 4% of the total vehicle fleet of 24 million.² That sounds small until you realize that 98% of those EVs were sold in the last ten years, and 80% in just the last five.² The curve is steepening fast.

What’s especially telling is the retention rate. Over 90% of EV buyers say they will only buy electric next.² Once people experience the technology – the lower operating costs, the smoother ride, the simplicity of charging at home – they don’t go back. That’s the kind of consumer behaviour that makes a snowball effect inevitable.

New EV sales in Canada currently sit between 8% and 20% of total vehicle sales depending on the province. The fleet percentage lags behind, as it always does – vehicles last a long time. But Norway shows us what’s coming: close to 100% of new sales are electric, and the fleet is already 40% EV.² Canada isn’t far behind on the adoption curve. It’s just a matter of time.

This Isn’t Just About Sustainability – It’s About Your Bottom Line

Here’s where it gets practical. Even if sustainability is not your thing, your bottom line surely is.

EVs are a better, more efficient technology that also happens to reduce emissions. For commercial fleets, the math is becoming too compelling to ignore. Lower fuel costs. Dramatically reduced maintenance. Fewer moving parts means fewer things breaking down. The total cost of ownership is shifting decisively in favour of electric – and that shift is only accelerating as battery prices continue to fall and charging infrastructure expands.

The cost and operational benefits are becoming impossible to dismiss. Fleets that have made the switch are cutting through the noise and making smart, practical decisions that improve their operations at scale. The question is no longer “should we electrify?” It’s “how quickly can we do it?”

The S-Curve Doesn’t Wait

Technology S-curves have a defining characteristic: by the time the shift feels obvious, most of the opportunity to lead has already passed. The organizations that moved early on smartphones, on cloud computing, on renewable energy – they’re the ones that captured the advantage.

EVs are in the steepest part of that curve right now. Canada’s e-mobility sector is projected to account for 47% of transportation GDP by 2035 – nearly triple its expected 2026 share.⁵ The government has recommitted with a $2.3 billion Electric Vehicle Affordability Program.⁶ Over 30,000 chargers are already installed across the country, with more on the way.⁷

The infrastructure is building. The economics are clear. The consumer behaviour is locked in. This isn’t a question of if anymore. It’s a question of when – and for businesses operating fleets, the when is now.

Whether you operate 5 vehicles or 500+, the transition to electric is no longer a future consideration. It’s a present-tense business decision. And the growth curve? It’s only getting steeper.

Sources

1. Auto123, “1 Million Electric Vehicles in Canada,” 2025. auto123.com

2. James Carter, “Canada Has 1 Million EVs on the Road,” LinkedIn, 2025. linkedin.com

3. InsideEVs, “EVs Just Outsold Gas Cars in Europe for the First Time,” 2026. Data sourced from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). insideevs.com

4. InsideEVs, “Plug-In Hybrids Are Outselling Diesel Cars in Europe for the First Time,” 2025. insideevs.com

5. Electric Autonomy Canada, “E-mobility Employment, GDP Share in Canada May Triple by 2035,” 2025. Report commissioned by Electric Mobility Canada. electricautonomy.ca

6. Government of Canada, “Prime Minister Carney Unveils Canada’s New Automotive Strategy,” February 2026. canada.ca

7. Government of Canada, “Canada Drives Electric Vehicle Infrastructure and Innovation,” November 2025. canada.ca